Libya’s relentless post-revolution conflict appears to be
heading for a military rather than a civil conclusion. The
finale to this struggle may come with an ofensive against
the United Nations-recognized government in Tripoli by
forces led by Libya’s ambitious strongman, Field Marshal
Khalifa Haftar. However, the conflict will continue if
Haftar is unable to consolidate control of the southern
Fezzan region, the source of much of the oil and water
Libya’s coastal majority needs to survive. Contesting
control of this vital region is an aggressive assortment of
well-armed jihadis, tribal militias, African mercenaries,
and neo-Qaddafists. Most importantly, controlling Fezzan
means securing 2,500 miles of Libya’s porous southern
desert borders, a haven for militants, smugglers, and
trafckers. The outcome of this struggle is of enormous
importance to the nations of the European Union, who
have come to realize Europe’s southern borders lie not at
the Mediterranean coast, but in Libya’s southern frontier.