The appointment of Prime Minister Abiy
Ahmed in 2018 marked a turning point in
Ethiopia’s recent history. The transfer of
power was peaceful and the new leadership launched unprecedented reforms
to accelerate the country’s path towards
democratisation.
› Instead of addressing Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities, however, reforms weakened the state
even further. Centrifugal forces and claims
of self-determination rose, leading to ethnic violence.
› The trajectory of Ethiopia’s transition is
currently driven by domestic, economic
and external factors, which delineate three
possible avenues: (1) spiralling instability
and relapse into conflict; (2) gradual stabilisation, progress towards democracy and
growth; (3) partial democratisation, combined with protracted turbulence.
› Strengthening the resilience of the Ethiopian
state and preventing an escalation of political violence are two policy priorities in view
of the 2020 elections. Conflict risks can be
mitigated by reconciling the ambitious reforms with concrete local needs and ethnic
grievances.