Brexit could have a major impact on EU development and humanitarian policies.
However, although Brexit is highly likely to happen, there are still uncertainties about
the UK’s new foreign policy approach and its repercussionson aid. The UK may act under
three different scenarios (nationalist, realist, cosmopolitan) with different consequences
for EU aid. The UK’s leaving would challenge the EU’s role as the world’sleading donor:
while global aid may decrease by up to 3 %, the EU could lose between 10 % and 13 %
of its world aid share. Its presence, through ODA, in neighbouring countries throughout
Eastern Europe and North Africa could be particularly affected, with a cut of between
1 % and 4 %, depending on differentscenarios. The EU could react to Brexit by adopting
two distinct approaches to foreign policy and development cooperation: either limiting
its role to that of a regional power or growing to become a global leader. In the first
approach, Brexit would have a very mild effect and would lead to very few policy
challenges. However, in the second, the EU would need to compensate for the loss of
Britain’s contribution to EU aid, both in quantitative and qualitative terms.