000			03051nab a22001937a 4500
008			120229t xxu||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d
040			_aES-MaBCA _cES-MaBCA
100			_913961 _aKosow, Hannah
245			_aNew outlooks in traceability and consistency of integrated scenarios _h[Recurso electrónico] PDF
300			_aRecurso online 12 p.
520			_aThis paper proposes two criteria to assess and compare the quality of (integrated) scenarios, namely scenario traceability and scenario consistency. From a futures research perspective, both are identified as being central challenges to scenario quality. Traceability is a recognized standard of scenario communication but difficult to achieve in practice. Consistency, simultaneously a construction principle and a constitutive element of scenarios, is not easy to accomplish either. Integrated scenario methodologies, i.e., those approaches combining, e.g., ‘story and simulation’ (SAS), are especially challenged by both issues. In this paper, scenario traceability and scenario consistency are more precisely defined and operationalized to allow for qualitative measurement, assessment and comparisons of different (integrated) scenario methodologies and their resulting socioenvironmental scenarios. The criteria are applied empirically to new forms of integrated scenario methodologies. They serve to analyze two explorative case studies combining the systematic yet qualitative cross-impact balance analysis (CIB) with simulation. The criteria allow illuminating whether and on what dimensions and levels these new forms of integrated scenario methodologies do (or do not) support scenario consistency and scenario traceability. The empirical analysis shows that new integrated scenario methodologies combining CIB with numerical simulation present some new answers to the traceability and consistency challenges of classical SAS approaches. The application suggests that the two criteria are appropriate and useful for assessing scenario quality from an academic perspective. Still, further research is needed to understand the relation of traceability and consistency to additional quality criteria that influence the practical usefulness of scenarios from a policy advice-oriented perspective.
650		0	_913653 _aAnálisis de sistemas
650		0	_91183 _aProspectiva
650		0	_91178 _aInvestigación
650		0	_91182 _aMetodología de análisis
773	0		_aEuropean Journal of Futures Research _g. -- Vol. 3 Issue 1 (Dec. 2015) p. 1-12 _iEn : _tEuropean Journal of Futures Research _x2195-2248 _w5362
856	4		_uhttp://download.springer.com/static/pdf/722/art%253A10.1007%252Fs40309-015-0077-6.pdf?originUrl=http%3A%2F%2Flink.springer.com%2Farticle%2F10.1007%2Fs40309-015-0077-6&token2=exp=1454417352~acl=%2Fstatic%2Fpdf%2F722%2Fart%25253A10.1007%25252Fs40309-015-0077-6.pdf%3ForiginUrl%3Dhttp%253A%252F%252Flink.springer.com%252Farticle%252F10.1007%252Fs40309-015-0077-6*~hmac=97298d5a91a8678ae0d169bac402f5dec1fa5f36ec86391617ece3bb866e50ab _qPDF
942			_2udc _cAN
999			_c17571 _d17574