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| 003 | ES-MaBCA | ||
| 005 | 20170116105537.0 | ||
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| 040 | _cES-MaBCA | ||
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_91995 _aGunaratna, Rohan |
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_aGlobal Threat Assessment _h[Recurso electrónico] PDF _cRohan Gunaratna |
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_bInternational Center for Political Violence and Terrorism Research _c2017 |
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| 520 | _aFour significant developments will characterise the global threat landscape in 2017. First, it is likely thatthe so-called Islamic State (IS) will transform from a caliphate-building entity into a global terroristmovement. In a manner similar to Al Qaeda (AQ) that had dispersed from its Afghanistan-Pakistan core in 2001-2002 to conflict zones worldwide, IS will refocus on consolidating the distant wilayats (provinces) to serve as bastions of its power. Second, the death of either IS‘ leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi or AQ‘s leader Ayman al Zawahiri may lead to collaboration or possible unification of the most powerful terrorist groups. This is possible because the discord between IS and AQ is not ideological in nature but over the issue of leadership. Third, IS, AQ and their associates will compensate for their losses in the physical space by expanding further into cyber space. Despite government and technology firms collaborating to monitor the cyber space, the battle-space of threat groups in the virtual communities will continue to operate and grow. Fourth, the rise of far-right, ethno-nationalist, anti-Islamist populist movements, particularly in the US and Europe is a pertinent development. The response by governments and their societies to these movements within their countries and ethno-nationalist challenges in the Middle East and elsewhere will determine the threat levels in the future. | ||
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_91745 _aTerrorismo internacional |
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_91103 _aAmenazas globales |
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| 650 | 0 |
_91183 _aProspectiva |
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| 773 | 0 |
_6http://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CTTA-January-2017.pdf _aCounter Terrorist Trends and Analysis _g. -- Vol. 9 No. 1 (Jan. 2017) p. 3-11 _iEn : _tCounter Terrorist Trends and Analysis _w3903 |
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_qPDF _uhttp://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/CTTA-January-2017.pdf |
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_2udc _cAN |
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_c18970 _d18973 |
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