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040			_aES-MaBCA _cES-MaBCA
100			_914274 _aRegens, James L.
100			_914748 _aMould, Nick
245			_aContinuity and Change in the Operational Dynamics of the Islamic State _h[Recurso electrónico] PDF
520			_aIn this article we estimate the influence of leadership changes on the operational dynamics associated with terrorist attacks conducted by the Islamic State and its predecessors. Because the focus of our research is empirical, the study uses data for 2,131 successful attacks between October 2002 and December 2014 to examine differentials in operational tempo, attack severity, primary tactics employed, and principal targets. The data are aggregated on a monthly basis to estimate the probabilities associated with specific attack sequences in terms of the following primary tactics: (1) firearms, (2) explosives, (3) hostage-taking/kidnapping, and (4) attacks involving combinations of (1), (2), and/or (3). The analysis is placed in a broad historical and strategic context in order to explore two key issues: (1) The effect of leadership change on terrorist group activity and (2) The implications for counterterrorism and counterinsurgency efforts. Our analysis reveals a myriad of conceptual, theoretical, and policy implications.
650		0	_913909 _aEstado Islámico
650		0	_91735 _aTerrorismo
650		0	_91621 _aSistemas de gestión _xLiderazgo
650		0	_91178 _aInvestigación
773	0		_aJournal of Strategic Security _g. -- Vol 10 No. 1 Art. 5 _iEn : _tJournal of Strategic Security _w328 _x1944-0472
856	4		_uhttp://scholarcommons.usf.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1526&context=jss
942			_2udc _cAN
999			_c19481 _d19484